Taylor, A., & Mathew, S. (2024, September 13). Global population growth is now slowing rapidly. Will a falling population be better for the environment?. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/global-population-growth-is-now-slowing-rapidly-will-a-falling-population-be-better-for-the-environment-235781 

Global population is increasing, but that trend is not predicted to continue. Instead, population is expected to peak at 10 billion people in 2060, and then begin to decline. Some of the world’s most populous countries, like China and Japan, are expected to halve in size by the end of the century. One of the main factors in this decline is women’s education—as more women become educated and join the workforce, they have fewer children later in life. Decreasing populations can have negative economic impacts, as there are less available workers and a large elderly population that needs taking care of.

Though it may seem like population decrease is a good thing for the environment, that might not be true. Elderly people tend to use more energy, because they often stay inside and live in larger homes. Additionally, most of the countries experiencing population decline are wealthy countries that produce the majority of emissions. As countries become wealthier, their populations will decline, but their energy consumption may not. Even if population decline lessens our environmental impact, it’s still important to reduce our consumption and emissions.

Sherburne, M. (2024, August 22). Human-wildlife overlap expected to increase across more than half of land on Earth by 2070. University of Michigan News. https://news.umich.edu/human-wildlife-overlap-expected-to-increase-across-more-than-half-of-land-on-earth-by-2070/

Human-wildlife overlap is when humans and animals occupy the same area, leading to interactions and potential conflicts between people and wildlife. In a study conducted by the University of Michigan, researchers predicted that the human-wildlife overlap will increase in about 57% of global lands by 2070, and will only decrease in 12% of global lands. This increased overlap is caused by human population growth, not climate change. As population increases, humans will begin to settle and develop new areas, encroaching on animal habitat. Regions with high population density, like India and China, already have high human-wildlife overlap, and that trend is projected to continue.

Although this overlap is not necessarily a bad thing, researchers did predict that it would put pressure on biodiversity, particularly in forests. Biodiversity in forests in South America and Africa was projected to decrease. The traditional method of conserving land by restricting human access to it is also becoming more difficult, as there are fewer areas free from human development. As our populations continue to grow and take up more space, it’s important to explore other methods of conservation, like creating wildlife corridors or temporary protected areas. The researchers also noted that we have an incentive to preserve biodiversity. Birds and scavengers, like hyenas, can reduce the impact of pests and prevent the spread of diseases. 

Overbye, D. (2024, December 27). A century of human detritus, visualized. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/27/science/biomass-garbage-construction.html

Materials produced by humans, including plastic, bricks, and asphalt, now outweigh all of the Earth’s biomass. As a way to visualize this, this article shows different-sized cubes to represent different forms of mass. Plants make up the majority of Earth’s 1.1 trillion tons of biomass, followed by bacteria and fungi. Humans are represented by a small cube in comparison, but the cubes for man-made materials are just larger than the cubes for biomass and amount to 1.3 trillion tons. One graphic shows how the production of man-made materials has increased over time. Beginning in 1910, the graphic shows how population and man-made materials have increased each year, with the rate of growth increasing over time.

I thought this article was an interesting and clever way to bring awareness to the issue of how much material and waste we are producing. It’s one thing to know that humans have produced 600 billion tons of concrete, but being able to visualize how large that is is helpful to realize the size of our impact. The article also notes that concrete and asphalt contribute to global warming, and that the issue will only worsen over time. In a timelapse that shows human population growth alongside the increase in man-made materials, we see that our production of these materials began to speed up during the 1960s, and continues to increase even as our population growth slows down. It’s concerning to see how our consumption has outpaced even our population growth.

Chow, D., Murphy, J., & Wu, J. (2024, July 12). Fertility declines, tapering populations, soaring life expectancies: What the U.N. population report shows about us and our future on this planet. NBCNews.com. https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/graphics-2024-united-nations-world-population-prospects-report-data-rcna160017 

A report released by the United Nations in July found that global fertility rates are dropping and the global population is expected to decline by the end of the century. Though many countries, including India, Pakistan, and Nigeria are expected to continue growing, some 60 countries’ populations have already peaked. Other countries, like the U.S., are only growing because of immigration. The global fertility rate is also decreasing. It’s currently 2.25 births per woman, down from 3.25 in 1990, and Europe has an even lower rate of 1.4. Since the pandemic, life expectancy has also increased to 73.2 years, and is expected to reach 81.7 years by the end of the century.  

Population growth affects multiple factors related to climate change, including energy usage, consumption, and the availability of resources. While population growth can intensify our environmental impact, many of the countries expected to continue growing contribute less to global warming than countries with declining populations. These countries are also in regions most likely to be impacted by climate change, and their growing populations will put more people at risk of extreme weather events that are exacerbated by climate change.

Anthony, A. (2024, November 2). The global fertility crisis: Are fewer babies a good or a bad thing? Experts are divided. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/02/the-global-fertility-crisis-are-fewer-babies-a-good-or-a-bad-thing-experts-are-divided 

This article shows different perspectives on declining population growth and fertility rates. Paul Morland, an author of a book that advocates for higher fertility rates, is concerned about the economic impacts of population decline. As fertility rates decrease, populations become older. In the case of the United Kingdom, Morland expects there to be only 1.7 workers for every retired person, a ratio that would place a strain on government resources. Another expert, Amy Jankiewicz, sees population decline as a good thing. She works for an organization that advocates for lower population growth, and argues that the world’s current population size is unsustainable. 

This article demonstrates the conflict between societal and environmental needs. Jankiewicz cites a statistic from the World Wildlife Fund that we have lost 73% of our wildlife population in the last 50 years. In this light, population decline seems positive, as it will limit our consumption of natural resources and our environmental impact, helping to conserve our remaining biodiversity. However, Morland’s argument for the economic impacts of population decline is also convincing. The article highlights the complexity of the issue—while our current population size is environmentally unsustainable, an aging and declining population is economically unsustainable. 

Kaysen, R., & Bhatia, A. (2024, August 12). Nights in Las Vegas are becoming dangerously hot.
The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/11/upshot/las-vegas-hot-nights.html?search
ResultPosition=3

Due to climate change, Las Vegas temperatures are increasing at dangerous rates. The most worrying change is that temperatures do not cool off at night like they used to, meaning people don’t get a break from the heat during the night. At the same time, the Las Vegas population (along with the population of many other southwestern cities) has quadrupled in the last 40 years, putting millions of people at risk. The problem is exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, where asphalt and buildings can trap heat, making cities significantly hotter than surrounding rural areas.

Rising temperatures due to global warming will force us to reconsider how we expand cities to keep up with population increase. The areas of Las Vegas that experience the most intense heat have dark asphalt roads and little shade. I thought a good solution to this problem moving forward would be to design neighborhoods with plenty of trees for shade and light-colored buildings or sidewalks. Another issue is that, as heatwaves become more intense, air conditioning will become a necessity rather than a luxury, increasing Las Vegas’ energy consumption and emissions.

INSKEEP, S., & MICHEL MARTIN, M. (2024, January 1). MORNING EDITION. The U.S.
population in 2024 is expected to grow by 1 person about every 24 seconds. Broadcast,
NPR.

This is an NPR radio interview with two experts on population trends. Rachel Franklin from Newcastle University in England explains that although the global population is increasing, the rate of growth is slowing down, especially in developed countries. Japan, which has a large older population and declining birth rates, is used as an example for what many countries will likely experience in recent decades. William Frey, a demographer, states that as birth rates in the United States are also declining, “[the U.S.] is very much dependent on immigration in the future to have sustainable [population] growth.”

Although it might seem that slower population growth will lessen our country’s effects on climate change, that isn’t necessarily true. The rate of consumption (or the amount of resources a single person uses) in the United States is significantly higher than what is sustainable. Franklin states that “we’re still going to see a huge environmental impact” if this consumption continues at the same rate, even with a decreasing population.

Hauer, M. E., Jacobs, S. A., & Kulp, S. A. (2024, January 16). Climate migration amplifies
demographic change and population aging. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10801880/

This article outlines the results of a study done on the effects of climate change on population aging. With a focus on sea level rise, the study explains that millions of people will be displaced as climate change worsens flooding and other climate disasters. Because younger people are more likely to migrate than older people, when a young population moves away from an at-risk area, the average population will rise in a trend called “population aging.” 

The study projected the effect of sea level rise on population trends over the next century, predicting a decline in parts of Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, while populations in areas of Tennessee, Oregon, and Colorado were predicted to increase. The study also analyzed how climate migration can create a domino effect, or “demographic amplification” on population trends. When young people leave their homes for a “destination community,” they will start families in their new home, adding to the region’s growth. In contrast, population aging in regions that are at risk for sea level rise can lower fertility rates and further population decline. In this way, climate migration can amplify other demographic trends. The most concerning part is that global coastal populations are expected to rise to over 1 billion people in the next century, meaning that hundreds of millions of people will be driven out of their homes by sea level rise.

Guo, K. (2024, June 20). Texas electricity demand could nearly double in six years, grid
operator predicts. The Texas Tribune.
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/06/20/texas-electricity-demand-forecast-ercot/

Demand for electricity in Texas is expected to double in the next 6 years, putting a strain on the state’s power grid. Texas’ Electricity Reliability Council attributes this problem to two causes. First, a new law has made it easier for companies to request access to the power grid, leading to more requests from large power users. Second, Texas’ population is increasing at a fast rate, putting additional strain on the grid. In order to meet this demand, legislatures are incentivizing companies to build gas-fueled power plants and requiring that power plants can adapt to changes in weather conditions.

Although this problem is currently happening in Texas, it’s a problem that will affect many other regions as population rises and consumption of power increases. The issue will force local governments to make decisions on where to find  and allocate new sources of power. Texas is mainly looking to non-renewable power to meet demand, but there is also a push to invest in renewable energy sources. The state is also considering programs to incentivize people and businesses to conserve and use less energy. Another important issue to consider is who to prioritize when energy runs short. I was surprised to learn that a significant portion of the energy demand comes from data centers who need electricity to run AI or to mine cryptocurrency, both of which use energy inefficiently. In addition to the environmental impact, this overconsumption of energy can also raise electricity costs for ordinary people.

DAVIES, D. (2024, March 26). Fresh Air. How climate-driven migration could change the face
of the U.S. broadcast, NPR.

Climate migration happens when climate disasters in a certain region become so extreme that people are forced to move elsewhere. Abrahm Lustgarten, who wrote a book about this trend, explains that much of the United States currently falls into a “human habitability niche,” a range of temperatures that allow for comfortable living and agricultural productivity. However, rising global temperatures are causing the habitability niche to move northwards, meaning that the southern and western parts of the United States are becoming increasingly uninhabitable. Lustgarten predicts that as coastal flooding, drought, and wildfires continue to worsen, the Great Lakes region and the upper Midwest will become a “sweet spot,” providing stability and protection from climate extremes.

The combination of intense heat, wildfire risk, and drought in the southern and western regions of the U.S. is already driving population growth in northern cities. However, Lustgarten predicts that people are not leaving the South and West entirely. Instead, as climate change makes agriculture more difficult, many people are migrating from rural areas to cities, seeking better economic opportunities. In fact, what I found interesting was that many of the quickest-growing regions in the U.S. have a high climate risk. Lustgarten explains that this is because government subsidies make these regions cheaper to live in, with the unintentional effect that millions of people are now at a higher risk for climate disasters.